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Brock Lesnar (-250) vs. Frank Mir (+190)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 100
July 11th 2009 7 PM
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
UFC Betting Pick: Brock Lesnar (-250)

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Heavyweight Championship bout Champion Brock Lesnar -250 vs. Interim Champion Frank Mir +190

I am torn regarding the UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between UFC heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar (3-1) and Interim Champion Frank Mir (12-3). As a mixed martial arts fan I want to support the fighter with the most skill and technique but Lesnar is such a beast possessing so much speed and power that one is awed by the raw talent of the former WWE star. I had picked Frank Mir in my UFC handicapping matchup report for their fight but at that time Lesnar was still honing his craft and learning form his mistakes.

In their first battle Lesnar was able to take Mir down, ground him and pound him out. If it was not for a referee stoppage to stand the fighters back up, the fight might have concluded right then and there. In any event, Mir was able to submit Lesnar with a knee bar. In a bad call of judgement, Lesnar attempted to avoid the submission instead of turning into his opponent.

Lesnar will have eight months to prepare and train for his next bout with Mir and will no doubt be prepared for submissions. At 265 pounds at fight time Lesnar will need to drop some weight in order to make the heavyweight division. Though he walks around at 285, Lesner moves as fast as a light heavyweight. Coupled with his immense raw talent Mir will definitely have trouble with his speed and take down abilities this time round. When Lesnar fought Randy Couture at UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar, Couture was not able to take Lesnar down though Couture is a world class wrestler—Mir’s wresting skills do not compare.

Lesnar is a world class wrester and ended his career as a two-time NJCAA All-American, 1998 NJCAA Heavyweight Champion, two-time NCAA All-American, two-time Big Ten Conference Champion, and the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion with a record of 106-5 overall in four years of college. Though Mir is a far superior grappler, I doubt he will be able to arm bar or kimura Lesnar due to his sheer size and strength. If he is able to land an arm bar, I can see Lesnar powering out. The only possible way Mir can submit Brock is by using a leg lock and no doubt, Lesnar will be prepared for that.

Lesnar’s game is all about the aggressive takedown and a dominate top control game all the while pounding his opponent with hammer fists. It is difficult to maneuver for the submission when one is consistently bombarded with hammer fists in the side mount and turtle position. Randy Couture could not do it nor could Heath Herring and Mir was taking quite a beating from Lasnar before the fighters were stood up.

When it comes to striking Frank Mir has worked a lot on his game and has become a technically much better striker. His stand up game is so good that he was able to pick apart Antônio Rogério Nogueira,with his precise striking. His kicking is also much better than Lesnar who is definitely not known for his kicks. As Mir is a far better striker he will want to try to keep this fight standing. His biggest challenge will be the aggressive forward nature of Lesnar who will be pushing for the takedown. As he is so quick and agile that he will be backing up Mir who is better at striking forward instead of back peddling.

Bottom Line: On paper Frank Mir is the better fighter with more experience, great grappling skills, superior technical striking, and a previous win over Brock Lesnar. However, Lesnar is a freak of nature and his size, power and speed have become too much to overcome. Mir does not have the power to knock out Lesnar, as Lesnar is just too big and strong and will overwhelm Mir with his sheer speed and aggression.

The fight will feature Mir trying to jab his strikes all the while trying to keep a safe distance with Lesnar eventually rushing him for the takedown. As Mir has a poor takedown defense he will be submitted by the much better wrestler. Once he has Mir in side control he will rain down hammer fists and the ref will stop the fight. I predict a first round TKO victory by Lesnar.

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