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Yushin Okami vs. Dean "The Boogeyman" Lister

by Stan Leung
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UFC 92 The Ultimate
December 27th, 2008 8 PM
Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister
UFC Betting Pick: Yushin Okami

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UFC Middleweight fight: Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister

I use to root for Dean “The Boogeyman” Lister (11-5). Before he started mixed martial arts he was a can’t miss blue chip rookie that would do great things in MMA. To me, he was a sure thing and had the skill and experience to be a great MMA fighter. I thought he would be compared to the likes of a Sidney Crosby of the NHL, Kobe Bryant of the NBA, or Peyton Manning of the NFL. However, so far in his career he has turned out to be a Sam Bowie or Ryan Leaf. Well not to that extent, but his MMA career has so far been a disappointment.

At only 11 and 5 Dean Lister is turning out to be decent fighter or a gate keeper where he is put up against fighters to test if they are good enough to become a great fighter. Whenever he steps in to fight higher competition he tends to loss. He has losses against Nathan Marquardt at UFC - Fight Night 8, Ricardo Arona at PRIDE - Total Elimination 2005, Amar Suloev at PRIDE - Bushido 4 and Jeremy Horn (which he avenged at Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale). Against top level opponents, Lister does not step up to the plate and either put on a good fight or dominate an opponent. If Lister can’t impose his grappling skills on a fighter he will not win the fight. He will either lose by decision or tire out from lack of conditioning.

Grappling wise Dean Lister is the better grappler in this fight. He is a two-time U.S. National Sambo champion, a four-time U.S. Machado National Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Champion (weight class and open classes), and a National Gracie Jiu Jitsu champion. Dean has also fought three times (2000, 2003, and 2005) in the Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC) championship where he won the Absolute Division championship in 2003, as well as two Superfights in 2003 and 2005; on his way to set a tournament record by defeating 4 of his opponents consecutively (3 by submission) in 2003.

Lister is the much better grappler in this fight, but Yushin Okami (22-4) has never been tapped out in his 26 MMA fights. His only submission loss was by strikes to Amar Suloev and his other three loses came by decision top level fighters Falaniko Vitale, Jake Shields and Rich Franklin at UFC 72: Victory. Okami and he has fought very good grapplers in the past like and has even beat top pound for pound fighter in the world Anderson Silva, so I don’t see Lister being able to submit him in this fight.

Even though not much is known about Okami’s grappling skills, he is a very good grappler and like Lister has also competed in the ADCC, in 2007. He fought in the under 87 kg (191 lb) category and lost to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Demian Maia in the elimination round. Maia is one of the best grapplers in the world, who eventually won the tournament. Don’t take Okami’s grappling lightly, he likes to shoot and take fighters down. He was able to take Anderson Silva down in their fight and when he fought Rich Franklin he almost submitted him with an arm bar. Yes Lister is the better grappler but he will not dominate him on the ground.

Okami will come into this fight as the bigger fighter and he will use his reach and size to push around Lister in this fight. He will have the ability to push Lister back with his long lower leg kicks which he can then set up his punches, high leg kicks or shoot in for take downs.

Two factors will give Okami the victory in this fight. It will be his superior striking skills and Lister’s lack of conditioning. Okami has so much better striking with a lot more power. He has fought much better strikers like Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva, Evan Tanner, Mike Swick, Alan Belcher and Jake Shields in the past and Lister’s Stand up skills are very bad. Lister has one of the worst striking skills in MMA. He postures up too much and his body is almost straight when he strikes. Because of this he has no power behind his punches.  And he pushes his punches rather then turning into them with his hips.

The second factor is Lister’s endurance. Lister is a slow fighter and tends to gas out. His ground game is to pull guard and rest, but against a bigger stronger fighter he will not have the opportunity due to Okami’s superior striking. Lister has never fought some one that is this big and has this much power in the stand up. He will not be able to get this fight to the ground and he will become tired and will be prone to Okami’s strikes. If this fight does not end with a first round knockout by Okamki in the first round, Okami will wear Lister down and grid out a decision victory.

Bottom Line: Okami is too big and too strong for Lister. Sports betting wise the UFC betting lines will open up with Okami as the favorite and I would lay a fair amount on an Okami victory. Does Lister have the skill to submit Okami? Yes but not as great as many people think. This will be a standup battle and Lister has not submitted anyone past the first round since his 5th pro fight.

Do I want The Boogeyman to win? Yes. Will He? I’m afraid not. Yushin Okami is not a world beater either but he has very good all round skills. He is a notoriously slow starter when he fights, but always turns it on in the end. If he can start out fast and overwhelm Lister with his power and strikes he should easily win in the first round. Otherwise he will start off slow and slowly start to dominate in the second and third rounds of the fight for a decision. Either way he is going to win this fight.

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