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Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva (-120) vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-110)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 92 The Ultimate
December 27th, 2008 8 PM
Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton Jackson
UFC Betting Pick: Wanderlei Silva (-120)

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UFC Light Heavyweight fight: Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton Jackson

For mixed martial arts purist the best fight of the night will not be the fight for the heavy weight or light heavyweight championship fights but the third match up between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (28-7) and Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva (32-8-1-1).

Plain and simple, if there is a UFC prop bet to be made it would be for this fight to end by knock out. Someone will be carted out of the octagon in this fight. So who will win this fight? Quite simply, Wanderlei Silva will beat Rampage for a third time.

UFC betting wise many online sports betting sites have Jackson as a slight online betting underdog at -110. The online betting lines should be much more in favor of Silva. He has already lost twice to Jackson. This is a prefect fight to wager a lot of money on since the online betting odds should really be -160 for Silva. I can not figure out why the UFC sportsbook odds makers have set these lines the way they are but all sports bettors should be jumping all over Silva to win this fight with some great betting lines.

On July 15, 2008 Jackson was arrested Tuesday by Costa Mesa police officers following a high-speed pursuit through the Californian suburbs from Costa Mesa to Newport Beach. During the police chase one of the tires blew out on his truck and he continued to flee while driving on his rims and showering the street with sparks.

The day before his arrest, Jackson gave an interview and said he had become depressed after his recent loss by decision to Forrest Griffin at UFC 86 - Jackson vs. Griffin. On July 16, 2008, someone in Jackson's household flagged down police and reported that Jackson was acting unusually. Jackson was escorted to a mental health institution for observations. He has been charged with 1 felony count of evading police while driving recklessly, 1 felony count of evading police and driving against traffic, 3 misdemeanor counts of hit and run with property damage, and 1 misdemeanor count of reckless driving when he nearly hit several pedestrians.


On August 28, 2008 Jackson pleaded not guilty to the above 2 felonies and 3 misdemeanors. Right now there are other concerns in Jackson’s life and he has had a history of depression in the past and he is not in the right mental state to fight Silva.

Striking wise, Wanderlei Silva is a better striker. He has fought most of his mixed martial arts career against top level fighters and has beaten most of them like Kazuyuki Fujita at PRIDE Critical Countdown Absolute, Keith Jardine at UFC 84: Ill Will, Hidehiko Yoshida, Ricardo Arona, Kazushi Sakuraba, Dan Henderson and the list goes on. Wanderlei has fought every type of fighter from middlewieghts to heavyweights, from wrestlers, K1 kickboxers, grapplers, judokas and everything else in between. Both fighters will come out swinging in this fight. Wanderlei has always been a middleweight fighting in the light heavyweight or heavyweight division but now that he has gained weight and has been accustom to the weight, his punching power is more powerful than it use to be. It has taken some time but Silva has now filled out more muscle and has been able to match his power and speed with his new weight.


Power for power, he is on par with Jackson and if he connects he will knock him out. Wanderlei Silva will be about to out strike Jackson in this fight. Technically Silva is a better striker. He has formal training under Rudimar Fedrigo at the Chute Boxe Academy in Curitiba, Brazil. He specializes in Muay Thai and has received a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

The difference with Wanderlei is that he can use his kicks to set up his punches. All Rampage has is his striking. If you look at Jackson's fight with Griffin, Forrest was able to use his lower leg kicks to hurt and throw off Rampage. Jackson does not check his kicks with his shins and has little defense from a lower leg attacks. Silva has technically good Muay Tai skills and he can use his elbows and knees while Jackson can not.


Once Silva gets Jackson in the clinch he can rain down knees. Silva will be able to back Jackson into the cage and be able to land knees into Jackson. He has already been able to KO Jackson with knees at PRIDE 28: High Octane and also at PRIDE Final Conflict 2003 again with knees. Silva’s knees will again be the deciding factor in this fight. Jackson will be aware of his knees and already this will throw off Jackson’s game plan.

With all the legal and personal trouble Jackson is in, he will not be able to train properly. Jackson has never been a gym rat and his cardio will not be where it should be. He will come into this fight out of shape and if this fight goes into the third round he will let his hands down and be susceptible to getting knocked out. Silva on the other hand has upped his cardio training and is working out in Las Vegas with Randy Couture at Extreme Couture. Jackson does not have hte caliber of MMA camp that Silva is in right now. Rampage trains with Michael Bisping and welterweight Paul Kelly at Wolfslair MMA Academy. Though good fighters, Jackson is not upping his training to fight Silva while The Axe Murderer is sparing with top level MMA fighters all the time at Team Quest.

Grappling wise, Wanderlei Silva is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. If he was smart Silva would take this fight to the ground and submit Jackson. We all know that he won't but if this fight goes to the ground he will beat Jackson. Silva had very underestimated ground skills. He showed a glimpse of his ground game when he fought Hidehiko Yoshida at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005. Silva has a very active guard and moves his hips exceptionally well. If he is in Jackson's guard he can arm bar him with ease. Silva's ground game will nullify Jackson's wreslting abilty and Rampage will not want to take Silva down due to his ground threat.

Bottom Line: Jackson is basically a one dimensional fighter. Yes he can strike and has a lot of power but so does Silva. If he can not out strike Silva he has no other way to win. Wanderlei Silva is a better fighter now than he was in Pride, and the question is out if Jackson is mentally prepared to fight again after this loss to Forrest Griffin at UFC 86 - Jackson vs. Griffin. With a history of depression Jackson has not been acting like a fighter. If Silva is smart he will try to take Jackson to the ground and either submit him or ground and pound him out. If the fight goes this way, and I highly doubt it will, Silva will win this battle.

All UFC bettors should lay a lot of money on Silva as all sportsbook have very soft betting lines and bettors should take advantage of this fight. Silva is a better fighter with more experience, more power, a better technically striker, can kick, has better elbows, has a better clinch and is a way better grappler. Jackson is not mentally prepared and will be out of shape and can only strike.

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