Kenny "Ken Flo" Florian (-185) vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (+160)

by Stan Leung
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Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson
UFC Betting Pick: Kenny Florian -175

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UFC Lightweight fight: Kenny "Ken Flo" Florian vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

There are certain fighters that make us money and there are certain fighters that lose us money. At fighting-mma.com our White Whale is Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian (10-3). If you are a regular reader of this site we have constantly picked against Florian to lose and he always wins his fights. Yes we can admit are wrong on minor occasions and Kenny Florian has outwitted us time and time again. So if you can’t bet against them join them.

UFC sports betting wise this is a much tougher call to make than the online sportsbook betting lines suggest. The UFC odds have Florian as a huge betting favorite at -185 with Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (29-8) opening at +160. I personally would have set the lines at +100 Stevenson and -130 for Florian. To me, both fighters are very close in almost every category but Florian is little bit better overall fighter and to me should be a slight favorite. My best betting option for this fight is a UFC prop bet for this fight to go the distance combined with a UFC parlay for Florian with win by decision.

Aside from Josh Koscheck, Kenny Florian is the most improved MMA fighter over the last two years. Though mostly known for his grappling skill, Florian has improved in all aspects of his MMA game. He earned a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Prof. Roberto Maia of Boston Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is technically one of the best ground fighters in the UFC lightweight division. Florian only has 3 loses to some very high level competition like Sean Sherk at UFC 64: Unstoppable, Diego Sanchez at UFC Ultimate Fighter Finale and Drew Drew Fickett.

Before Florian use to fight his mostly from his back, but now he has become a good top side fighter and relies on an overall ground game instead of fighting from his back. By changing his grappling style he now uses his top grappling game, combined with his ground and pound. That has been the biggest change in Florian’s ground fighting game. Before he was being too technical and trying to fight from his back and attempt submissions that were too fancy. Now he is an aggressive top fighter and can use his strikes to complement his grappling game.

Grappling in MMA is much different that grappling in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and I think Stevenson has a better grappling game for no holds barred or mixed martial arts fighting. Stevenson trained most of his career at Cobra Kai with one of the best grappling instructors in the world in Marc Laimon. He start Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu  at the age of 13. He has spent most of his recent training with Laimon so his no gi grappling game is much better than Florian’s. Stevenson has competed in more competitions and is better on the ground than Florian is. However, his skills do not overwhelm Florian so I see a stalemate on he ground between the two fighters.

Technically, Florian is better grappling but Stevenson has only lost 3 times by submission and one came from BJ Penn and one came from Chris Brennan. On the ground he is a much stronger fighter and a bigger body. I don’t see Florian being able to submit Stevenson in this fight because he has such a big body frame and short limbs. Conversely, I don’t really see Joe Daddy submitting Florian, as he is much quicker on the ground. Stevenson is best known for his guillotine chokes but if not applied in the first round it will be hard for him to submit Florian as the rounds go by. This fight will not be decided on the ground as both fighters are very good ground fighters and will nullify each other in this category. 

This fight will be a striking battle and Kenny Florian is the much better striker. He has been upgrading his Muay Tai skills for the last couple of years and will be able to set up his lower legs kicks with strikes. He will be able to back off any shoot attempts and set up his punches and combos with his kicks. If this fight goes into a clinch game Florian can use his elbows and inside fight game to cut and hurt Stevenson. Stevenson is a decent striker but he has short limbs and does not have the reach that Florian has. He likes to do looping overhand punches which takes a longer time to get to there destination.

When is comes to pressure both fighter have a very high aggressive pace and both fighters like to push the pace in a fight. Florian is a much better pressure fighter and will more forward in the fight and Stevenson will not be able to handle the pressure and pace as much as Florian will. When Stevenson fights aggressive fighters it throws him off his game plan and he does not know how to adapt because he is likes to push the pace of the fights. In the fights he has lost, where his opponents were the aggressor he tends to lose like in his fights with BJ Penn at UFC 80 - Rapid Fire and Josh Neer at UFC Ultimate Fight Night 4 who were able to dictate the speed of the fight.

Bottom Line: Both fighters are equally capable of winning this fight. Florian is the better all round fighter, while Stevenson is bigger, stronger and a better grappler. Both fighters like to push the pace of a fight, but in the end Kenny Florian will win this fight for being more aggressive. This fight should go the distance and this would be a great prop bet to make for the fight to go all three rounds. Florian will be the aggressor and score more points and that will reflect in the judges scoring.

Striking wise, Florian has only lost to top level strikers and Stevenson does not have the striking speed and technical capabilities to hurt Florian in this fight and that is where this fight will be won. One note, Stevenson tends to cut easily. If Florian cuts him the fight could be stopped early or it can play into the minds of the judges for a decision.

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