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UFC 91 Couture vs. Lesnar
November 15th, 2008 8 PM
Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Brock Lesnar
UFC Betting Pick: Randy "The Natural" Couture +100
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UFC Heavyweight title fight: Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Brock Lesnar
The biggest mixed martial arts fight in history is about to be made as there is huge excitement for this fight. Randy “The Natural” Couture (16-8) will make his return to the UFC after he resigned in his hopes to fight the best fighter in the world in Fedor Emelianenko.
To lure him back to the UFC President Dana White gave Randy an equally daunting challenge to spark his return to the UFC. On September 2, 2008 the UFC announced a 3 fight deal with the now 45 year old return to as heavyweight champion to fight at UFC 91 on November 15, 2008 in Nevada against former WWE Brock Lesnar (2-1). The winner of this fight will go on to fight the winner of UFC 92's Nogueira versus Mir bout, for the Undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship.
This will be the most hyped MMA fight in history as Lesnar’s mainstream presence will bring about huge media exposure to the growing sports of mixed martial arts that will draw in mainstream media as well as the hardcore WWE geeks.
Sports betting wise this will be the most bet on UFC or MMA fight in sports betting history as everyone has their opinion on the outcome of this fight. Most sportsbook oddsmakers are being very conservative in the fight as the lines opened up even with -115 on both sides but due to the fame, mainstream presence, or Lesnar’s sheer size a lot of betting action has been placed on Brock which has pushed him as the online betting favorite at -120 and Randy Couture as the underdog at +100.
Don’t let the hype fool you Randy Couture is a real MMA fighter that has been around the block and is smarty enough to have a game plan going into this fight that will throw off Lesnar. He will beat the much more inexperienced fighter at UFC 91 and by the time the fight occurs Couture underdog betting lines will rise to +160. You can bet on that. The difference in this MMA fight is that Couture has the experience and Lesnar does not.
Yes Brock Lesnar will be a great fighter one day but with only 3 pro MMA fights he is not yet ready to be a champion. Just because he is big and fast does not mean he is ready compete at a world championship level yet. Just look at his fight with Frank Mir at UFC 81: Breaking Point. If you read our UFC handicapping report for the Brock Lesnar versus Frank Mir this fight should go the same route. In that fight Lesnar made a classic grappling mistake and tried to run away from the leg submission instead of turning into the submission.
Brock Lesnar is still very young to MMA and lets face it he is only in this fight because he is a big name and nothing else. If he was not a former WWE star he wouldn’t even be considered for this fight. His first fight against Min Soo Kim was against a fighter who took the fight on only 2 weeks notice. His second fight was against Frank Mir who made him look stupid on the ground and his third fight against Heath Herring at UFC 87: Seek and Destroy. Yes Lesnar won the fight but all he did was lay on Herring the whole time and did little damage. He did not threaten him on the ground with submission attempts even though the kimura and other submission were readily available. If that was Randy he would be smart enough to get out of that position due to his wrestling experience.
At this point in his career Lesnar is a one dimensional fighter that can only use his size to lay on his opponent and land pot shots. Has he acquired the skills to become a full MMA fighter yet? Yes but to a certain extent. Because of his size Lesnar will pose a lot of problems for any decent MMA fighter but he has not gained the necessary experience to fight at the top level yet. Just look at his fight with Mir who is not even a top ten heavyweight. Brock Lesnar is still green when it comes to mixed martial arts and it will show against the smarter fighter.
Most online bettors will think that Brock is the better fighter because he is bigger, younger and stronger; however, he is not better. Randy Couture has been betting underdog throughout his entire career and in each and every MMA fight he has fought he has been the underdog. Everyone always counts Randy out and bets against him like in his fights with Tim Sylvia at UFC 68: The Uprising and Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74: Respect. Sports betting wise when Couture he is an underdog he wins.
Randy Couture is a smart fighter and a technically better wrestler than Lesnar as he was a three-time Olympic team alternate (1988, 1992 and 1996); a semifinalist at the 2000 Olympic Trials; a three-time National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division-I All-American and a two-time NCAA Division-I runner-up at Oklahoma State University. Lesnar had a great NCAA wrestling career but he never faced the world wide competition than Couture has faced.
When it comes to wrestling, people think Lesnar has the advantage but it is Randy that has the advantage and is the better technical fighter. While Lesnar has more raw power and speed, Randy will be able to out wrestle Lesnar if this fight goes to the ground due to his experience. Brock just won’t be able to lay on top of Couture like he did with Heath Herring as his wrestling background will be able to get out of those situations. We have seen Lesnar's top control game but what about his defense game if Randy is able to gain top control. If Couture is able to get the top control I do not see Lesnar being about to get out.
When it comes to striking Couture, is also the better striker. Look at his game plan with Tim Sylvia. He was able to stay outside and land shots in a well executed striking game. Couture is a smart enough fighter that he will be able to withstand the initial Lesnar pressure and out strike him in this fight. Brock does not have very good striking, as he is more about explosiveness than being accurate and technical. Once Randy is able to slow down the pace of he fight Lesnar will be vulnerable. Couture will stay on the outside and avoid Brock initial charge and from there will out strike him and land the cleaner shots. People don’t realize that the Lesnar's striking is still unknown. Grappling wise Couture is not known as a submission fighter but he does have the capability while Lesnar has no grappling whatsoever.
Many believe that Lesnar will win this fight because he is bigger, stronger and faster than Randy. Though that may be true one thing that people fail to neglect is intelligence. Fighting is not about the most in shape fighter, otherwise you would see any muscle bound idiots fighting and winning all the time. Case in point: Kimbo Slice and Houston Alexander.
Brock Lesnar is not a smart person and he is the type of fighter that does one thing. He does not think when he fights as he is all about raw power and instinct. Well with only 3 MMA fights what kind of instinct does he have? MMA fighting is about more than power, it is about being smart and that is something Couture has a wealth of.
Brock uses his speed and size to his advantage. But what happens if he is faced in a situation that he is not use to. He is not smart enough to know what to do. Just look at his fight with Frank Mir. Taken out of his comfort zone he will be very vulnerable. That is the intangible factor that will decide this fight.
Training is the other major factor in this fight. Team Quest gives Couture the oppurtunity to bring in all the best talent to help him train for Lesnar. He is bringing similar large wrestlers that will mimic Brock’s fighting style. At his disposal is one of the best MMA camps in the world with the best trainers and fighters to help him prepare for this fight in striking, wrestling and grappling.
Lesnar on the other hand trains with Minnesota Martial Arts Academy under Greg Nelson, and University of Minnesota Head Assistant wrestling coach Marty Morgan. This is basically a MMA school for wrestlers. He will not become a complete fighter fighting in a club that is full of wrestlers. Brock will go into this fight lacking basic fundamentals in MMA fighting like proper striking and a solid submission and defense game.
Bottom Line: Brock Lesnar is a big strong powerful and fast fighter but he will be outsmarted by Randy Couture who will have a great game plan. Couture has more experience and will survive Brock’s initial pressure and than will start to take him apart.
People have always counted out Randy Couture because of his age but he has grown from a one dimensional fighter that was basically a wrestler into a well rounded MMA fighter. That is something Brock Lesnar does not have at this point in time. Never EVER count Randy Couture out as he will not be stupid enough to be pressured into Brocks top game and he has the skills to get out and his striking and smarts will score points on Lesnar who will become frustrated and than make a mistake.
Remember strength and speed may get you to the dance but it is the one who is left standing that will win this fight.
Never Count the Natural, Look for Him to Win this Fight by Unanimous Decision
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