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UFC 91 Couture vs. Lesnar
November 15th, 2008 8 PM
Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley
UFC Betting Pick: Aaron Riley
Bet this MMA UFC fight at Bodog Life
UFC Lightweight fight: Jorge Gurgel vs. Aaron Riley
Dear UFC match maker Joel Silva. Get rid of Jorge Gurgel (12-4). He is the most over hyped fighter in the UFC that has is over rated in both his heart, striking and grappling game. There I said it. UFC betting wise, the online betting odds should be pretty close but Gurgel will be the favorite coming into this fight because he will have the TUF betting bump and exposure from past UFC events.
For many new online bettors don’t let the fact that he is a known in the UFC sway your betting. Besides Chris Leben, Jorge Gurgel is the most overhyped and underperforming UFC fighter. The only reason why he is still in the UFC is because he is Rich Franklin’s friend. So once the online sportsbooks come out with the betting lines I would jump all over this fight.
Aaron Riley (24-10-1) is a heavy handed fighter and has very good hands and powerful striking. When it comes to a heart of a mixed martial arts fighter, Aaron Riley has it, as he fights as hard each and every fight. He never gives up and is always putting a good fight for the fans. His fight with Robbie Lawler at UFC 37 - High Impact is probably one of the best fights in MMA history. If you look at Riley’s 10 loses he has lost to top level fighters like Ryan Schultz, Eddie Alvarez, Spencer Fisher, Sam Morgan, Chris Lytle, Robbie Lawler, Yves Edwards, and Falaniko Vitale. Any one of theses fighters would mop the floor with Gurgel who already has 4 losses in 12 fights.
Aaron Riley is a journeyman fighter who has very good hands and even better chin. I do not see Gurgel hurting Riley in the stand up. He has below average hands and kicks and even less power behind those shots. He will score points in this fight but he will not be able to hurt Riley. Gurgel does have better kicks but he will not be able to outstrike Riley. Riley has mostly fought in his career as a welterweight and moving down to lightweight is the perfect division for him.
Jorge Gurgel has been working with Matt Hume on wrestling but he will not have the power to take Riley down who is the stronger and bigger fighter. Riley is a very stalky man and if he sprawls there will be no way for him to Gurgel to take him down. Riley will either use his knees to back off any shoot attempts. Riley has only been submitted twice in his career; in his first pro MMA fight and to Sam Morgan.
Gurgel is suppose to be a black belt in Brazilian Jiujutsu but we have yet to see any of his skills. His last submission was over 3 years ago and all of his MMA victories by submission have been against unknown fighters. When he has faced better competition he has no submission victories, so his level of threat as a grappler is minimal as best. When you look at Gurgel fight you do not see any indication that he is an even a high level grappler. I really do not know why he is even a black belt. He has never won any major BJJ tournaments and he was given his black belt by Marcus Aurileo who is just a couple of years older than Gurgel, which means he never trained under Aurileo.
Grappling wise on paper Gurgel is better but I don’t see him being able to A) take him down and B) submit him. Riley has a thick body and short limbs which makes his body type very hard to submit. To get a submission on him you have to have very good technique which Gurgel does not have. He likes to play with his open guard too much and go for high percentage moves that don’t work against someone that is tight and has good base.
We have yet to see Gurgel do anything on the ground in any of his fights. He will not be able out grapple Riley if he can not take him down. Aaron Riley has been around the block as an MMA fighter who has fought every type of style. He has fought far better grapplers, strikers and wrestlers than Gurgle, and he will use his experience to beat Gurgel who never has a game plan, is wild with his striking and never uses he supposed superior ground game; so what good is he.
Bottom Line: Gurgel has no business being in the UFC. He is not the fighter the UFC say he is yet he still gets fights; and that’s a good thing sports betting wise. We have made a lot of money betting on Gurgel and if you re-read our MMA handicapping predictions from the past we were always bang on about this fighter.
Jorge Gurgel (Even) vs. Cole Miller (-130)
Jorge Gurgel (-175) vs Alvin Robinson(+155)
Gurgel does not have the power in the stand up to hurt Riley who is a very aggressive and powerful striker and he will put a TKO in the first or second round on Gurgel. Bet heavily on a Riley KO in this fight. Put it this way; are you scared of Jorge Gurgel? I didn’t think so.
Aaron Riley will put a beat down on Gurgel
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