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UFC 89
October 18th, 2008 – 8 PM
Shane Carwin vs. Neil Wain
UFC Betting Pick: Don't Bet This One
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UFC Heavyweight fight: Shane Carwin vs. Neil Wain
Shane Carwin (9-0-0) knows that holding down two jobs can be rough. He's a full time engineer, and a full time mixed martial artist. He's a quick thinker and a force of nature. And if he weren't on the same card as Silva-Jardine at UFC 84, he probably would have earned himself a Knockout of the Night on his UFC debut!
Still, Carwin is one of the new-breed MMA fighters: A multi-talented athlete in addition to being a gym rat.
For the first couple of years of his MMA career, Shane wasn't really challenged. He fought in the lower leagues and never had a fight go past 2 minutes and 11 seconds. His team claims that he has good cardio, however the guy has never needed it. He's coached by veteran Nate Marquardt, and rolls with the folks over at High Altitude MMA in Colorado. That's a good crew, with very modern attitudes and methods. So even though he hasn't been tested to his full potential, his pedigree is high.
Shane has a ground game in addition to his sound stand up attack. He was an accomplished Division II wrestler in addition to being the Ring of Fire Heavyweight champion. Carwin can field a balanced attack, with brutal results.
Neil Wain (4-0-0) is the recent phenom out of Doncaster, England. He's a dynamic brawler who has closed every bout with a KO or TKO in the first round. His striking is best described as 'brutal'. We would have seen him in action at UFC 85 against Antoni Hardonk, but Neil got injured and the fight got scrubbed.
The injury was a broken nose during training. Wain trains with veteran Tengiz Tedoradze (23-8-1) and other seasoned U.K. talent like Jason Ball (11-6) over at Team Ultimate Force. Though he has yet to be taken to the ground, his raw strength and brick-outhouse build make him a hard target. In other words: Not only does he have the option of sprawl and brawl, but if someone does manage to take him down, limb based submissions are going to be difficult. He should be able to ride out the assault and muscle his way back to his feet.
Neil has more than just a puncher's chance in this one. He has more power and a better build than his opponent, but less experience. And the first time UFC jitters can always play a factor with these young fighters.
Bottom Line: This one is too close to call. Betting lines haven't come out on this fight yet, but if they are close to even, it won't be worth a bet at all. All things considered, Carwin has a very slight edge. But it isn't a betable edge without the right odds. Your best bet is to lay odds on a round 1 stoppage instead.
This one won't make it out of the first round, but who hits the canvas first is anybody's guess.
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