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UFC 88: Breakthrough, Betting Lines Wagering and UFC Sports Betting
UFC 88: Breakthrough
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Thiago Tavares vs. Kurt Pellegrinoby
Stan Leung |
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UFC 88 Breakthrough UFC Lightweight Fight: Thiago Tavares vs. Kurt Pellegrino UFC sports betting odds have not been out for this lightweight bout but the online betting lines should be pretty close but Kurt Batman Pellegrino (11-4) will be a slight favorite by most of the sportsbook oddsmakers. Pellegrino will be fighting a very tough Brazilian fighter in Thiago Tavares (13-2) who is a well rounded fighter but has lost his last 2 out of 3 fights in the UFC to Tyson Griffin at UFC 76 - Knockout and a surprise right hook lose to Matt Winman at UFC 85 – Bedlam. Tavares was one of the best up and coming stars in the lightweight division but losing to an average fighter in Matt Winman puts doubts in many people’s minds. He gets no easy fight as he is fighting a very aggressive and cocky fighter in Pellegrino who is just as very good a grappler as he is. Pellegrino’s aggressiveness and will be the deciding factor in this fight, as he will push the pace of the fight in either the stand up or on the ground. Pellegrino has very good submission skills and is very aggressive on the ground as he has a very active guard and is always going for submissions. In grappling Pellegrino is the Pan American Gold Medalist and is the 2004 US Abu Dhabi Trials runner-up and 2007 Abu Dhabi competitor. If you are invited to fight at the Abu Dhabi’s you have some serious grappling skills. Though Tavares is no slouch on the ground, Pellegrino is a slightly better fighter on the ground. He likes to push the pace with his open guard and go for submissions. He has a very good bottom grappling game which is much better than his top game. If Tavares is careless and goes for an aggressive ground and pound game he will be caught in a triangle choke. Kurt Pellegrino is just a notch above Tavares in his grappling and he has fought tougher opponents throughout his career with wins over TUF winner Mac Danzig, Junior Assuncao at UFC 64: Unstoppable, and top level grappler Alberto Crane. His loses have come against Joe Stevenson, Drew Fickett at UFC 61: Bitter Rivals and Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night 13. Tavares has not fought the level of competition that Pellegrino has and when he does face better competition he has not stepped up. Pellegrino is the better striker will be able to hold his own against the Brazilian. Tavares has only one win by TKO as he most of his wins have been by submission. Though neither fighter is a stand up specialist Pellegrino is much better striker than Tavares. Once again he is more aggressive in the stand and he will use his kicks and punches to throw off Tavare's game plan. Bottom Line: The one deciding factor in this fight is pace. Pellegrino likes to push the pace in his fights and is aggressive and always pushing forward. This will impress the judges should the fight go to a decision. If you look at Tavares record he was rolling through guys early on in his career with a 10 and 0 record with 9 submissions before he got to the UFC. However, since he has fought in the UFC he has gone 3 and 2 but 3 of those fights have come by decision. Either he has lost his ability to dictate fights or when Tavares fights better competition he is not as dominate as his record dictates. Tavares fights in the UFC have been by decision which means he has not pushed the pace to submit or out strike his opponents. Because the pace of this fight will be dictated by Pellegrino he will get the points for pushing the pace in the eyes of the judges. Both men are very capable to submit each other but Pellegrino has a more aggressive grappling nature about his game. Pellegrino is a fighter that learns form his mistakes and I don’t see him getting caught like he did against his last fight against Nate Diaz. Pellegrino will score more points through his aggressive nature and should control Tavares throughout the entire fight. Betting wise the MMA betting odds should pretty close as Pellegrino might be a slight favorite at -130. Though Pellegrino is arrogant, cocky and sometimes over confidant he does know how to fight. He lost his last fight with Nate Diaz because Diaz got under his skin and there was a lot of trash talking prior to the fight. His ego got the best of him in that fight and he lost. He will be cocky but it won't let him derail his game plan like in his last fight. Because both fighters are very good fighter and this fight should be a stalemate fight but Pellegrino is just slightly better at the stand up and can control Tavares on the ground through his active guard. This will be a good fight to lay your money on Pellegrino with some good betting odds. Look for Pellegrino to win a unanimous decisionBet on the UFC at Bookmaker.com - Where The UFC Line Originates |
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