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UFC 87: Seek and Destroy

MMA Fighting Matchups

Jason MacDonald (+215) vs. Demian Maia (-265)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 87: Seek and Destroy
Saturday August 9, 2008 7:00 PM
Jason MacDonald vs. Demian Maia
UFC Betting Pick:
Demian Maia -265

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UFC Middleweight Fight: Jason MacDonald vs. Demian Maia

Everyone knows that this fight will not last standing up. So if we logically deduct that this fight will not be standing than we can figure out that Demian Maia will win this fight.

Demian Maia (7-0) is a great fighter and comes from one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu clubs in Brazil as he trains with the Jiu-Jitsu team Brasa. Grappling wise Maia is so much better than Jason MacDonald (20-9). Maia won the 77kg - 87kg weight division at the 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship, defeating Flavio Almeida by armbar in the Finals. Jason MacDonald is a good grappler but no where near the skills as Maia is. If grappling tournaments Maia had beaten the likes of Ronaldo de Souza, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Gustavo Machado. If you don’t know grappling that is like beating the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

If this fight goes to the ground Maia will submit MacDonald very quick.

Grappling wise Maia’s achievements include:

  • 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Champion
  • 2007 Super Challenge under-83kgs Champion
  • 2006 Pan American Champion
  • 2005 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Runner-Up
  • Three-time World Cup champion
  • Two-time World Champion
  • Brazilian champion
  • 7x state champion
  • 4x Brazilian team champion

MacDonald’s grappling resume includes absolutely nothing. MacDonald does have some skills on the ground but compared Maia’s ground game to MacDonald’s is like comparing apples to oranges. When it comes to grappling Maia is in a league of his own and MacDonald has no chance on the ground.

I am surprised that the sportsbook oddsmakers have not set the betting odds higher so grabbing Maia at -280 at Bookmaker.com is a steal in my opinion. I would bet heavily on this fight for a submission victory. The reason why the online UFC betting lines are not as high is the fact that MacDonald has a number of fights in the UFC and against tough opponents.

Don’t get me wrong MacDonald is a good fighter but not a great fighter. He is a middle of the road fighter with impressive wins over middle of the road fighters like Joe Doerksen at UFC 83: Serra vs. St-Pierre 2, Rory Singer at UFC 72: Victory, Chris Leben at UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2, Ed Herman at Ortiz vs. Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter, Gideon Ray, and Bill Mahood.

The reasons why the betting lines are closer than what they should be is because Jason MacDonald has fought decent opponents, however, every top level fighter Jason MacDonald faces he loses. He has lost to top guys like Yushin Okami at UFC 77: Hostile Territory, Rich Franklin at UFC 68: The Uprising and Patrick Cote.
Striking wise MacDonald is the better fighter. He has a weird looping stand up style and he has worked and refined his boxing skills through former world champion Tony Pep. However, he tends to loop his overhand punches which leads him to be taken down. If MacDonald loops any of his punches Maia will duck under and take MacDonald down.

Ed Herman who is a better striker than MacDonald could not hurt Maia and he was able to take Herman down. This will Maia biggest task as he is still unproven versus top level opponents but he has all the right tools to beat MacDonald. Maia has the skills to be a top level middleweight and all he has to do is beat a middle of the road fighter.

Bottom Line: Maia is such a great grappler and he has won submission of the night honors in both of his UFC fights and he just might do it again. MacDonald just isn’s a good enough grappler and his striking skills are nothing to be scared of with only 2 victories by KO. He has 16 wins by submission but there is no way he will submit Maia. In sports betting there are no for sure things but with UFC odds at only -265, I would lay it all on Maia for an easy payout.

Look for Maia to submit MacDonald with ease

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