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Kenny Florian (-160) vs. Roger Huerta (+130)

by Stan Leung
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UFC 87: Seek and Destroy
Saturday August 9, 2008 7:00 PM
Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
UFC Betting Pick: Roger Huerta +130

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UFC Lightweight Fight: Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta

In a very important mixed martial arts fight to determine who will fight BJ Penn as the number one contender for the UFC Lightweight championship, the two top contenders Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian (10-3) and Roger El Matador Huerta (22-1-1-1) will square off at UFC 87 Seek and Destroy.


Despite what the UFC says neither fighter has fought top level competition nor a real threat to BJ Pen should one of them win. One thing is for sure is that this will be the fight of the night as both fighters like to put on a great show and fight hard each and every round.

If I were to place a wager I would take the UFC prop bet for the Over/Under and bet heavily on the over total to go three rounds. This fight will go the distance and this fight will be hard fight to score however, Roger Huerta will beat Florian because he will be more aggressive and push the pace of the fight. Also remember that Roger Huerta resides in St. Paul, Minnesota and will be fighting in front of his home crowd with home town judges.

The online UFC betting lines have this fight with Florian as a distinct favorite at -160 but I think the betting line should be closer. If I were an online sportsbook oddsmaker I would have set the MMA betting odds to open at -110 each for Florian and Huerta.

Kenny Florian has become a well rounded fighter with a good base in grappling who has worked hard on his striking game by going to Thailand to learn and train in Muay Thai. Florian has a good grappling background with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from Prof. Roberto Maia of Boston Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (Gracie Barra Boston). Florian is one of the most improved fighters but I am still not that convinced he is as good as the UFC claims him to be. Grappling wise he will have an advantage over Huerta but Huerta has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and that will nullify his grappling. If Huerta gains top position on Florian he will have the skills to do some damage in the ground and pound.

Though Florian has much improved standup skills with good elbows and leg kicks Huerta is a far much better striker. Out if Huerta’s 22 wins 10 have come by KO and he has never been stooped by TKO or KO. Florian does not have the power in the standup to hurt Huerta. Florian did put a TKO over Joe Lauzon at UFC Fight Night 13 but he did not look at good in that fight.

The problem with Florian is that he has problem fighting aggressive fighters. His loses to Sean Sherk at UFC 64: Unstoppable, Diego Sanchez at the UFC Ultimate Fighter Finale and to Drew Fickett have all come by fighters who are more aggressive than Florian is. Florian is a fighter that likes to push the pace in a fight and dictate the fight to how he wants to fight. If a fighter is more aggressive it throws off his game plan and what Florian wants to do in the fight. In that instance he will lose. Once Huerta pushes back just watch and see Florian’s game fall apart.

Roger Huerta has not fought the competition that Florian has but he has never been knock out or been submitted. He only lose came early on in his career to Ryan Schultz thought a verbal submission. This will be Huerta’s biggest test in his MMA career but if you look at all his fights in the UFC he has gotten better each and every time. He fought a great grappler in Alberto Crane who is much better grappling than Florian is and he knocked him out. He also beat a very aggressive fighter in Clay Guida at the Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale where Guida pushed the pace of the fight and Huerta has to use everything he had and push the limits to beat him. Florian does not have the aggressive nature to push back against aggressive fighters and he will be overwhelmed by the entire pace of the fight.

Striking wise, Huerta is a much better striker than Florian and he will push the pace and use his power in the stand up to take him down. Huerta will do a lot of damage in the standup and will force Florian off his stand up game and pressure him to try to take him down.

Betting Wise: I love the underdog in this UFC bet. Florian is no where near as good as what the UFC claims Florian to be. I like Huerta’s aggressive style and willingness to fight anywhere anytime. He will push the pace and confuse Florian. He is stronger and has better stand up and wrestling skills. Florian has the grappling advantage but since Huerta is stronger he can out muscle his way out of any ituation and not be caught in side control. He has great escapes from submission and I really don’t see Florian imposing his ground and pound game or submitting Huerta.

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