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UFC 84: I'll Will
Saturday May 24, 2008 7:00 PM EST
Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic
UFC Betting Pick: Reljic
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UFC light heavyweight fight: Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic
Undefeated Croatian light heavyweight fighter Goran Reljic (7 - 0) will make his Ultimate Fighting Championship debut when he faces American Top Team fighter Wilson Gouveia (10 - 4) at UFC 84. This has the chance to be a battle as both fighters have excellent grappling skills. Goran Reljic is a great grappler and has as much or better grappling skills than Wilson Gouveia for MMA fighitng. In terms of gi fighting, Gouveia is the better skilled fighter. Reljic is a 23-year-old Croatian fighter, who is associated with the Gracie Berra UK team and will go into his UFC debut with a chip on his shoulder as he was sued by the UFC for fighting in the Bristol Open 2008 Brazilian Jiu-jitsu tournament which he won.
Reljic splits time training in his native Croatia and with Roger Gracie in England. Reljic recently won the 2007 European Gracie Championship in the 93-kg (205-lb.) weight class. His BJJ skills are on par or better than Gouveia when it comes to MMA grappling.
Gouveia is the better striker but at a 10 and 4 record Gouveia does not step up in competition when it counts. He has loses to Keith Jardine at the Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale, Rory Singer, Ron Faircloth and Hirotaka Yokoi. His loses in mixed martial arts have not come by house hold names. Goran Reljic is undefeated and has the potential to be great in the light heavyweight division.
The knock on Gouveia is that he is not a hard worker and does not train as hard as he should. Yes he trains at American Top Team but ATT these days has become so big and confused that it is not the club everyone makes it out to be. At ATT, some classes don’t start on time and a lot of fighters won't train with other fighters. It has turned into a click amongst some fighters and it is widely spread out and disorganized. Gouveia has lacked conditioning and relies on his skill to win fights instead of training hard.
Despite Gouveia being the more accomplished striker and grappler I feel that his skills do not overwhelm Reljic and that Reljic will be coming as the hungrier fighter. Reljic has been learning grappling from Roger Gracie who is the best grappler in the world today. Though Reljic skills in the stand up skills are yet to be determined I do like his grappling skills even though Gouveia is a black belt. Despite Gouveia being the better grappler he has won a lot of his fights by striking and against sub par fighters. His submission wins over Carmelo Marrero at UFC 71: Liddell vs. Jackson, Seth Petruzelli at UFC Fight Night 9 and Wes Combs at UFC 62: Liddell vs. Sobral have not been text book submissions. His grappling looked sloppy and against higher level grapplers those submission attempts would never work; especially against an accomplished grappler like Reljic.
Bottom Line: I am not confidant in Gouveia’s work ethic in the gym and he might be taking this fight lightly with a new comer to the UFC. Reljic is the best Croatian fighter in the world today and he has the pedigree and body build and furious fighting nature you want in a MMA fighter.
The sports betting odds are not yet out for this fight but I imagine that Wilson Gouveia will be a large favorite in this fight. As a UFC bettor I would bet against the UFC betting lines and take the underdog in this fight. The UFC has been impressed with Reljic that they signed him to a 3 fight deal as they think he has the talent to make waves in the UFC. Reljic has the talent to be a great MMA fighter and his fighting style resembles his idol Minotauro.
At the sound of the bell Gouveia will be able to rush in with his superior striking and will dominate. After Reljic weathers the storm this fight will go to the ground and it will be back and forth. By the start of the second round Gouveia will be tired and Reljic will start to control the top grappling game. From there he will be able to submit a tired Gouveia for the upset.
Take Reljic to surprise the BJJ black belt with a second round decision
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