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UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre 2
Saturday April 19, 2008 8:00 PM EST
Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter
UFC Betting Pick: Lutter +285
Bet this MMA UFC fight at BetUS.com
UFC middleweight title fight: Rich Franklin (-350) vs. Travis Lutter (+285)
When Travis “The Serial Killer” Lutter (12-4) fought the best pound for pound fighter in the world in Anderson Silva he lost by second round submission. On the ground he had Anderson Silva in trouble and was in a lot of dominating positions. Even the best striker in division the middleweight could not knock him out. If Anderson Silva could not KO Lutter I highly doubt Rich “Ace” Franklin (22-3-1) will be able to. Lutter has never been known as a hard worker but he has stepped up his training and will have great cardio when he fights Franklin.
We all know that Travis Lutter’s game plan will be to take this fight to the ground and his ground game is heads and tales above Franklin’s. Franklin is currently ranked as a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Jorge Gurgel and he does not have the ground skills and training to compete with Lutter. Travis Lutter has a black belt in Machado Brazilian Jiu-jitsu. Lutter has been able to make the transition from gi to no gi and has been very successful at submission grappling. He has twice in the Abu Dhabi World Championships and became an Ultimate Submission World Champion when he won the Ultimate Submission Championship, defeating Ryron Gracie. In submission grappling he is the 1999 and 2000 HooknShoot National USA ADCC winner. In Brazilian Jiu-jitsu he has won numerous titles while Franklin has very limited BJJ and grappling skills.
In my opinion I am not a fan of Jorge Gurgel and his grappling skills are very loose and not very tight. If he taught Franklin BJJ I would believe he would teach him bad technique and base. In grappling this fight is a no contest. Who would you want to learn grappling from Carlos Machado or Jorge Gurgel?
Rich Franklin has the definite advantage in striking with KO’s over Evan Tanner at UFC 53: Heavy Hitters and Ken Shamrock at The Ultimate Fighter Finale but who else. He ha fought some lesser guys and beat them with ease like Nathan Quarry and Jason MacDonald but he has not been able to really finish a top level fighter in years.
Bottom Line: This is a classic striker versus grappler fight and each fighter will try to maintain and control the fight in their area of expertise. I think Lutter will be able to withstand Franklin’s punches and be able to take him to the ground. Once this fight goes to the ground Lutter will be able to control with better top base positioning to submit Franklin. I think Franklin is a great role model and great for the sport of mixed marital arts but hasn’t raised his fighting skills, especially his ground game.
Lutter’s skills in the ground are so much more overwhelming that on the ground he will impose his will in guard, half guard or top mount. Most UFC betting lines and odds have Lutter at around +285 which are great UFC betting odds. I love the underdog in this fight.
Take Lutter for an upset victory over Franklin with a second round submission over the former UFC middleweight champ
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