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UFC 82: Pride of a Champion
Saturday March 1, 2008 10:30 PM (EST)
Evan Tanner vs. Yushin Okami
Okami -200
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UFC middleweight mixed martial arts fight: Evan Tanner +160 vs. Yushin Okami -200
Yushin “Thunder, Phoenix” Okami (21-4) is one of the top ten middleweights in the world and has the size strength and skill advantage over Evan Tanner (32-6). Tanner has not been actively fighting and his last fight was in April 15 2006 against Justin Levens at UFC 59 - Reality Check. Tanner has more skills on the ground and is technically more sound grappling wise, but Okami’s size and strength will pose problems for him.
Tanner has battled alcohol problems and withdrew from a number scheduled UFC matches and due to his problems outside the ring he will have a tough fight against a top level opponent. He might have his instinct and skills but his conditioning will not be on par with Okami.
Two years ago Tanner was the 185 pound world champion, competing against the top names if the sport, but the sad fact is that his drinking problem has taken over him and I am not sure he is ready to fight at this time. Tanner was supposed to fight Dean Lister on December 29, 2007 but reports are that he fell off the wagon and withdrew the fight. It has only been almost 3 months since he withdrew from his last fight and even if he is no longer drinking his conditioning is no where near where they should be. 27 out of Tanner’s 32 pro MMA fights have been decided in the first round which means he was a finisher. But he is not in the shape to compete and if this fight goes into the second and third round his body will be exhausted.
Tanner even states on his own website:
“I quit drinking for a while. I was doing so well. I thought I was in control of that vice. I went out with some friends and decided to have a beer. It’s been downhill since…. I’ve been on the road for almost two years. I’m tired. I’m tired of drinking, I’m tired of living out of bags, I’m tired of not feeling home. And where is home? I imagine being in the gym again. I imagine stepping into the Octagon again, and in some strange way, those thoughts bring me comfort. That is my home. I know it’s time to come home. I have not been training at all, despite what the rumors say. I’ve signed no fights. I’m so far gone, living on the road, drinking myself into oblivion, that in moments of weakness, I wonder if I can make it back. It’s going to be a long road.”
This is a perfect fight for Yushin Okami who is a very slow starter. Most of his fights he starts off slow and always finishes strong. His last 6 fights all went to the third round against fighters he should have dominated. If he wants to be a top ten fighter he has to pick up the pace and finish fights. Fighters like Jason MacDonald at UFC 77: Hostile Territory, Mike Swick at UFC 69: Shootout and Allan Belcher at UFC 62: Liddell VS Sobral allfighters he should beaten within the first two rounds. If Okami starts off fights at better pace he would have beaten Rich Franklin or Jake Shield; both fighters he lost to by decision.
In this fight Okami will have the definite striking advantage over Tanner. Tanner in his prime has never been a good striker and always relied on his wrestling and grappling skills. The problem here is that Okami has the bigger body frame and size and strength. At 37 years old even in his prime, he would have problems fighting Yushin.
Bottom Line: Tanner has fought and beaten the better competition but his body is broken down. Tanner has his own personal demons to battle with and I don’t think he has overcome them. In the mixed martial arts fight game you have to be mentally and physically prepared to fight. Okami will use his size and powerful legs kicks to set up Tanner. Tanner will not be able to take Okami down and he will punish an unconditioned Tanner to submission by punches. UFC betting wise, everyone loves a comeback story but not today.
Okami finally gets a first round victory with a TKO to a shaky Tanner
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