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UFC 81: Breaking Point
Saturday February 2, 2008 8:00PM (EST)
Tim Sylvia vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nogueira -180
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Interim Heavyweight Championship mixed martial arts fight: Tim Sylvia +250 vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -180
With Randy Couture and the UFC in a legal dispute UFC 81: Breaking Point’s headline main event fight will feature Tim “The Maniac” Sylvia (26 - 3) versus Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (30 - 4 -1) or Big Nog for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship title.
Nogueira first fights in the UFC have not been spectacular. He fought Heath Herring at UFC 73 – Stacked. In a fight he should have rolled through he was rocked hard by Herring and almost knocked out. Nogueira did regain his composure to squeak out a unanimous decision but he did not look good in his UFC debut. Is this the Pride curse that has caused so many former Pride FC fighters to have poor MMA fights in the octagon like Wanderlai Silva, Shogun, Cro Cop, Heath Herring, Dan Henderson, Yushin Okami and Kazuhiro Nakamura or is Nogueira just has too many hard fought fights?
I would have to say that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a much better fighter than his first UFC performance. Nogueira is by far more skilled on the ground than Sylvia is and he has better technical striking skills than Sylvia as well. Nogueira has been training with the Brazilian national boxing team and was considering trying out for the Olympic squad. He is a former Brazilian Top Team member and now trains with Black Horse and UFC middle weight champ Anderson Silvia
Despite the better all round skills Sylvia has more power and has the ability to KO Nogueira at anytime. Despite Sylvia’s power, strengthen and size his knock ratio in comparison to higher level UFC heavyweight is not that great. Against top level fighters like Brandon Vera, Randy Couture, Jeff Monson, Andrei Arlovski, Assuerio Silva, and Frank Mir even though the Maniac won some of those fights he either put on a poor performance or was not able to step up to and finish.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a top 3 heavyweight in the world and he is the best technical grappler in the game. His Brazilian jujitsu skills are off the chart. He has fought and beaten some of the best heavyweight on the planet like Josh Barnett at PRIDE Shockwave 2006, Fabricio Werdum at PRIDE Critical Countdown Absolute, Pawel Nastula at PRIDE Critical Countdown 2005, Sergei Kharitonov, Mirko Filipović at PRIDE Final Conflict 2003, Ricco Rodriguez, Dan Hernderson, Semmy Schilt, Bob Sapp, Enson Inoue, Heath Herring (three times), Mark Coleman, Gary Goodridge, Valentijn Overeem, and Jeremy Horn.
All these fighters are world class while Sylvia has not fought the quality of fighters Nogueira has. Nogueira has had 3 fighters with the world’s number one pound for pound fighter in the world in Fedor Emelianenko. If Fedor was unable to KO Nogueira than what chance does Sylvia have?
The former Pride heavyweight champion will follow the same game plan as Couture did by staying outside and landed punches off angle. Sylvia is too slow striking wise to land, as Nogueira’s technical skills will overmatch and baffle the slower less skilled fighter.
If Nogueira takes this fight to the ground it will be ugly. Sylvia has no counter for Nogueira jujitsu skills. Nogueira moves like a cat and in the guard has enough skill to submit Sylvia. If this fight goes to the ground, Nogueira can submit Sylvia at any position; side mount, closed guard, half guard, north/south or mount.
Bottom Line: Nogueira is a world class mixed martial arts heavyweight and betting wise as a UFC bettor I will lay a lot on Nogueira to beat Sylvia. The only thing that Sylvia has is size and Nogueira is 6 foot 3 and 240 pounds. He is not exactly a small heavyweight and as I always say skill trumps power, strengthen and size any day.
Nogueira becomes the UFC interim heavyweight champion with a second round submission.
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