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MMA: UFC FIGHT NIGHT 16
DECEMBER 10TH, 2008 9PM EST
LIVE ON SPIKE TV
MAIN CARD PREDICTATIONS

UFC Welterweight fight: Josh Koscheck vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida 

In only his second fight in the UFC Japanese sensation Yoshiyuki Yoshida(10W-2L) gets a headlining bout against UFC veteran and TUF season 1 alum Josh Koscheck (11W-3L).

Yoshida comes to the UFC as a highly touted contender with a decorated background of MMA skills.  A well rounded and unique striker with great power and precision, he is very dangerous on his feet and possibly more of a threat on the ground with a submission arsenal that rivals the division’s elite.  Throw in a world class Judo background consisting of a 4th degree black belt you have a fighter that is able to strike, clinch and generate devastating takedowns.

Koscheck a NCAA Division I National champion and a 4-Time All American was thought to have the best wrestling pedigree in the division until he faced Canadian and current WW champion George St.Pierre.   In that fight it was realized that despite having an abundance of talent and athleticism he is far from ever being a contender or champion.  This was again validated only recently when he stepped in on short noticed and was destroyed by Thiago Alves in a lopsided 3rd decision.


Josh has improved his striking greatly, adding some much needed Muay Thai to balance his explosive takedowns.  Once he has his opponents grounded its almost impossible for any fighter to deal with him.  He has a solid top game and aggression that could translate into a GnP win at any moment.

Bottom line:  On paper I have Yoshida winning a close fight, however sometimes in life and in sports investing we have to look beyond the stats and open the intangibles.  There are just too many situational angles here that favor Koscheck.  A recent beat down and missed title fight opportunity, UFC signing issues and possible release, camp and game plan troubles and a foreign opponent who has the skill set to flat out embarrass him.  I like that Yoshida has all of 1 minute of UFC octagon experience.  I look forward to seeing Koscheck set a pace, drive and will that Yoshida has never experienced from a very wounded and backed up animal who has showed grit and toughness against very sounded opponents such as Alves and GSP.   Koscheck takes this on a combination of athleticism and heart; he takes this fight for his career, UFC survival and for the troops.

UFC Welterweight fight: Mike Swick vs. Jonathan Goulet

This fight to me is a gift and platform for Mike Swick to showcase his once and long forgotten KO prowess.  In his first 4 UFC fights Swick went an impressive 4W-0L averaging fight time 1:18.  In his last 4 UFC fights he is 3W-1L and has gone the distance in everyone. 


Swick has great striking, very fast, hard and diverse.  A well balance stand-up like Swicks allows him to control and neutralize his opponents and keep them at bay.  With fluid footwork he is able to stay on his feet and stuff any takedown attempts.  His ground game is underrated and needs to be considered a threat as his striking allows him to dictate any takedown attempts.

Goulet (22W-9L) is a rugged and tough fighter who is very similar to his opponent.  With a make-up of striking and BJJ Goulet is not to be taken lightly as 19 of his 22 wins are way of TKO/KO or submission.  Coming into this fight riding a 2 fight win streak Goulet will have to find a way to end it early; Goulet has not gone the distance in almost 2 years.

Bottom line: Mike Swick has more size, power, speed, endurance and discipline than his opponent.  He has fought much deeper competition and has shown great composure and willingness to stick to a fight plan.  This fight is a perfect fit for Swick and I cannot see him dropping this one.

UFC Light heavyweight fight: Steve Cantwell vs. Razak Al-Hassan

This fight is a tough one to call.  Former WEC LW champion Steve Cantwell (6W-1L) makes his UFC debut fresh off his upset rematch victory to Brian Stann.  In that bout we saw a completely different fighter that displayed some improved Muay Thai strikes, confidence and ring control. 

Al-Hassan (6-0) has enjoyed some success in the small circuits to date.  A much respected ground grappler with decent wrestling and submissions it’s a bit early to tell how much he brings to the UFC.

Bottom line:  Cantwell’s striking is just too powerful.  He has decent footwork and a solid clinch.  Unless Al-Hassan has developed a superior stand-up on this short noticed fight I simply cannot see him getting the takedowns needed to win.  Cantwell should be able to prevent Al-Hassan from getting any control at all times and take the win.

UFC Middleweight fight: Tim Credeur vs. Nate Loughran

I think its pretty safe to say that Tim Credeur (10W-2L) will have a few friends in the audience Wednesday night as he fights for his fellow Navy peers.  Credeur is a well verse in judo and BJJ.  He is very slick and elusive on the mat.  His striking is effective and accurate and he loves to mix it up and get dirty.  If its one thing we have learned over the course of TUF season 7 was that Tim is tough, gritty and has the fighting spirit.  Never backing down from a challenge or fight I look for his will to break through and take over his undefeated opponent.

Loughran (9W-0L) is a very good submission expert.  8 of his 9 win via submission.  He looked very impressive in his UFC debut and there is no doubt he will want to take this to the ground as soon as possible.  Nate has yet to fight 1 solid opponent.  I fear that his relative ease to date will be a disadvantage as his opponent has just the right amount of sandpaper to stretch this fight out and take his will away.  I see this fight being a test of stand-up down the stretch.  Credeur has the skills to roll with Nate and if he can escape a few ground attacks I cannot see Loughran having any other skills to put Tim away.

Bottom Line: Look for a savy and skilled game attack from Nate early on but look for an even stronger striking attack from Credeur that will eventually break his opponent down.

**note, the TUF exposure may have this line heavy on Credeur, and if that’s he case wagering Nate may be a safer value play**

UFC lightweight fight: Jim Miller vs. Matt Wiman

Fight of the night in the main card is this one.  Both of these guys know how to fight.  Jim Miller (12W-1L) is a top talent and a future force in this already deep division.  A rugged grappler with strong submissions I look for Miller to get inside and fight a little dirty.  Within the clinch I feel he is just as good and maybe even craftier.  Striking wise I would give Wiman the slight advantage due to his reach.   On the ground they are both strong but Miller’s BJJ is stronger and I give him an overall advantage here.

Wiman is a well rounded fighter who will want to stand and push the pace.  With Miller taking this fight on really short notice he might want to take advantage of Miller’s cardio and be cerebral.  Wiman has been impressive in his last 4 fights and a win over Frankie Edgar would’ve really cemented him in the contender mix.  Wiman’s training for Edgar I believe is a disadvantage as his strong wrestling is a different beast from Miller’s BJJ and submissions. 

Bottom line: Miller has nothing to lose in this fight and has all the skills to hang with Wiman, he may even have a few more.  Throw in the fact that Miller and Edgar have a strong training relationship and the pre fight prep will be a very detailed one for Miller.  I see Miller slowing this fight down and grinding out a round or 2.  With it being a very short noticed fight we should have healthy odds on our side for an upset victory. 

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