UFC 81: Breaking Point - Predictions

by Jake Thompson
Fighting-mma.com staff writer

 

 

Brock Lesnar versus Frank Mir

Lesnar – Lesnar was a dominant college wrestler but took a lot of time off for professional wrestling so it’s hard to gauge where his skill level is at.  He’s had one pro fight and looked good enough but the level of competition wasn’t close to what Frank Mir can do.  Standup is going to be iffy as Lesnar has not been training MMA for very long like most fighters. 

Mir – Great submission guy but will get outwrestled by Lesnar.  Mir’s best bet is to keep this fight standing where he has the edge.  Takedown defense for Mir will be key because if Lesnar takes him down, Mir’s best bet is a triangle which might be difficult on the huge frame of Lesnar. 

Prediction – This one is hard to call just because no one has really seen Lesnar’s standup but I’d give Mir the slight edge due to experience, submissions, and standup.  It’s very possible that Lesnar could lay on him for 3 rounds while not doing much (IE avoiding sub attempts from Mir) but it’s a risk I’d take as Frankie has the skills to be champ again the second he gets himself back into shape.  I have Mir via TKO round 3.

Betting – Frank Mir +115

It’s a decent line since this fight is a 50/50 proposition in my eyes.  Lesnar’s only hope is getting the takedown but he’ll have to deal with some hard strikes from Mir before that happens, and once it hits the ground Mir will give him fits and make it hard to lay-and-pray for the decision win.  If the Frank Mir of old comes to this fight, Lesnar doesn’t stand a chance.  If the one we have seen in recent fights comes out, it’s still 50/50 at worst considering the skills Mir has worked his whole life on.

Tim Sylvia versus Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Sylvia – Hard puncher whose size and reach create problems for most of the guys he faces.  Has been submitted twice but you can account some of that to being rocked first and I’m not sure Nog has the power to knock Sylvia silly, although Nog’s boxing is similar in ways to Couture’s (who dazed Timmy). 

Nogueira – All of his losses came against guys who can outwrestle him.  Submission wrestler but works solid boxing as well but isn’t the hardest of punchers.  Big Nog may sport the best chin in the business and he has never been KO’d or TKO’d.

Prediction – I don’t like Sylvia’s chances here but I’m a little worried about Nog considering how horrible the Pride transplants have looked.  Sylvia likely won’t knock out the Brazilian and it’s very possible that Tim gets taken down and overwhelmed on the ground here.  I’ll call Big Nog via 2nd round submission.  Sylvia doesn’t have the standup or the wrestling to win this one.  I’ll cross my fingers that this isn’t another incoming Pride fighter who forgets how to fight.

Betting – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -200

Jeremy Horn versus Nate Marquardt

Horn – Excellent at submissions but also has shown random weaknesses defending them.  His chin is excellent but has some issues when he faces a fighter who can defend his subs.  Has more experience than almost anyone fighting.

Marquardt – Another excellent chin here with nice submissions.  Not in Horn’s category but good enough to defend most anything.  He has lost some decisions but usually against fighters who almost always go to decision. 

Prediction – Marquardt has the edge on the feet here and is good enough to avoid the takedown and submission attempts.  This will likely be a boring decision for Nate “The Great” but I wouldn’t rule out Horn either.  I have Marquardt via majority decision. 

Betting – No Bet

The line sits at Nate -275 and that is simply too much to risk.  I almost want to bet Horn as that big of a dog but I just think Marquardt is the superior fighter and will sit back and watch what I consider to be a somewhat boring fight with neither fighter able to do much.

Alan Belcher versus Ricardo Almeida

Belcher – Hard puncher who has a little bit of a submission game but not much.  He has issues with wrestlers if he can’t catch them in a guillotine on the way in.  Easy to control on the ground. 

Almeida – Quality jui jitsu fighter who generally has good position in his fights.   Has shown a decent chin but hasn’t really fought a guy with Belcher’s power.  Has some nice quality wins on his resume’. 

Prediction – This one is pretty hard to predict since Almeida’s chin is largely untested and Belcher lays some heavy leather.  That being said, Almeida has beaten enough quality opponents that he gets the benefit of the doubt as far as controlling Belcher goes.  I could see Almeida on top and ground-and-pounding with some sub attempts throughout this fight.  I’ll go with Almeida via 2nd round rear-naked choke.

Betting – No Bet

Almeida is at -145 which sounds just about perfect.  It’s just so hard to bet a fighter as a favorite when no one knows if he can take a strong punch or not, because at some point in this fight Belcher will likely deliver one.

Gleison Tibau versus Tyson Griffin

Tibau – Very nice jui jitsu and generally has outworked his opponents.  Cardio seems to be very good.  Can get TKO’d if the other fighter gets on top.  His chin is merely average. 

Griffin – Great wrestler who controls his opponents and has enough submission knowledge and strength to get out of every attempt.  Will rain down punches while on top and not let his opponent free.

Prediction – Tibau is an underrated fighter but Griffin is the perfect guy to beat him.  Tibau won’t be able to submit Tyson and will likely get outwrestled and lose the standup as well.  Griffin via 3rd round TKO.

Betting – No Bet

Tyson Griffin is a huge favorite right now at -370 and I won’t lay that no matter the situation. 

Kyle Bradley versus Chris Lytle

Bradley – Making his UFC debut and has made a name for himself by knocking out scrubs so far.  He has very average submission defense and needs the KO to do much of anything. 


Lytle – Has shown very good submission but the amount of decisions he loses is off the charts.  He’s good at getting himself into bad position and then doing just enough to survive.  Has shown a solid chin.  Lytle needs a submission to win or he’s in for a long night. 

Prediction – Lytle should overwhelm the greener fighter in this one as Lytle’s chin is good enough to stand up to whatever Bradley can dish out and on the ground it will be all Lytle.  Lytle should also be the substantially bigger fighter here.

Betting – No Bet

Lytle is a HUGE favorite at -600 and if I thought Bradley had a punchers’ chance, I’d actually be on the underdog here.  That is just too much to lay on a fighter in this position, but at the same time, I can’t see Bradley doing anything other than losing.  This is a good fight to avoid.

Marvin Eastman versus Terry Martin

Eastman – Very good wrestler who likes to be on top and grind out decisions.  Average submission game, average at defending the sub, and average chin.  If he can’t control the fight on top, he will have some problems although Eastman does have enough standup skill to not get dominated there.  Has had issues getting knocked out against guys who bring the fight to him.

Martin – Extremely hard puncher whose fights almost never go to the cards.  Martin does have some issues with his chin but he’s had those issues with guys who hit harder than Marvin Eastman. 

Prediction – Martin should get a KO here and reestablish himself as a contender in his new weight class.  Marvin is tough enough to last a little bit but when the takedowns don’t work, he should catch one.  Martin via 2nd round KO.

Betting – No Bet

Martin at -240 seems just about right for the line to be at.  There is always the chance that Eastman lays on Martin or gets the crazy knockout that seems to follow wreckless fighters like Martin. 

Tim Boetsch versus David Heath

Boetsch – Has heavy hands and can finish the fight due to strikes from the top.  He really hasn’t faced anyone other than his loss to Matyushenko in the IFL and his conditioning and late cardio are definitely in question.

Heath – Has shown good submission skills and submitted a guy in Salmon that will try and get on top like Boetsch will.  Heath is a nice wrestler with a well-rounded game.

Prediction – Heath is just the better fighter here and should avoid Boetsch’s punches, take the slightly out-of-shape fighter down, then impose his will.  Heath via TKO in round 1 should be the way this one ends, unless Boetsch rolls and gets choked.

Betting – David Heath -215

Heath has shown a great chin and will control Boetsch here.  There is the chance of a freak KO from a punch that Heath doesn’t see, but the favorite should end this one early and be very impressive.

Rob Emerson versus Keita Nakamura

Emerson – Much better than his 6-6 record indicates as he has fought some very tough guys when he was first coming up and learning the game.  He does have some issues with not doing enough and losing on the cards but has good standup and his takedown defense looks decent enough.  Very little submission game but has shown a knack for avoiding submissions as well.

Nakamura – Has shown good wrestling and jui jitsu and most of his wins are via the rear-naked choke.  That being said, he has lost two decisions in the UFC against guys who knew how to defend the choke.  Has shown an excellent chin.

Prediction – This one is close but I believe Nakamura will be the more active fighter and win a unanimous decision.  Emerson is good enough to stay out of sub attempts but probably not refined enough on his feet to knock out Nakamura or catch the better ground fighter in a submission.  If Emerson can keep this standing he has a chance though.

Betting – Rob Emerson +195

I will take a chance here as this one is likely to go to the cards and then who knows what will happen.  I like Rob to be better at the standup and if his takedown defense is about where I think it is, Emerson is a very live doggie here.

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