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Joe Stevenson versus BJ Penn

Stevenson – Has lost a few decisions against guys that can fend off his submission attempts and deal with his wrestling.  Has not had any issue with strikers.  Good chin.  Good at getting top position but doesn’t do a ton when there.  Seems to excel against active fighters where he can take advantage of mistakes.  Not much in the way of standup but good enough to avoid shots and get inside. 

Penn – Has issues with better strikers who can defend submissions.  Excellent jui-jitsu and has never been submitted.  Has shown a lack of cardio in recent fights.  Has a habit of losing decisions against guys with good sub defense who stay active.  Has a very good chin and is unlikely to get knocked out on his feet. 

Prediction - Although it’s always possible that BJ Penn can submit Stevenson, I think it’s more probable that this fight goes to the cards.  Stevenson is very strong and I think both fighters will have issues submitting the others.  Stevenson doesn’t really have a chance to sub BJ and unless Penn gets the first round sub, I don’t see how this fight doesn’t go to decision once the two get sweaty and tough to hang on to.  Standing up, BJ has the definite edge but Stevenson is so good at avoiding the big shot I don’t think we’ll see a KO here.  This one could go either way and I’d give a slight edge to Penn because of the standup.  I’ll say BJ Penn with a majority decision.

UFC Betting - Joe Stevenson +230

Even though I’d give a small edge to Penn, getting +230 on the better wrestler in this one just makes sense.  If Stevenson can get the takedown, he should do a good job scoring and controlling the rounds against the wiry Penn.  Despite Penn’s escapes, it’s possible that Stevenson can control him for 2 or 3 rounds with top position and that alone makes the big dog worth betting on.

Fabricio Werdum versus Gabriel Gonzaga

Werdum – Great jui jitsu but he has struggled a ton against guys who defend submissions well.  His standup is somewhat technical but his power is not impressive.  He has a habit of losing on the cards and if he can’t submit his opponent, it’s likely he won’t do enough to get the win.  His jaw is pretty nice as well.

Gonzaga – Very nice jui jitsu but not as good as Werdum’s.  Better wrestler and striker but not as technical as most.  Has gained weight and skill since his TKO loss to Werdum in 2003.  Had issues with a better wrestler in Couture last time out.  Never has been submitted.

Prediction – This fight is going to be very different than the first time around.  For starters, Gonzaga is much bigger and his wrestling should overpower Werdum on the ground with his striking being much more dangerous as far as KO power.  The only ways Werdum wins this fight is via triangle choke or via decision but decision is unlikely as I think Gonzaga can catch him if this stays standing.  More than likely, Gonzaga will stand and trade a little bit and eventually get the takedown.  He can use his size and the cage to keep Werdum at bay and ground and pound as much as he wants.  He’s likely to get a stop but should win on the cards if it goes that far.

UFC Betting - No bet

Gonzaga at -250 is just too much to lay IMO and the Vegas line looks about as close as it can get to being 100% on.  If I were to bet on this one, it would be on “Napao” Gonzaga avenging his earlier loss.

Jorge Rivera versus Kendall Grove

Rivera – Excellent striker but like most top strikers, he has issues with getting knocked out by other hard punchers.  Good submission defense but isn’t immune against top jui jitsu guys.  Lots of experience.

Grove – Has shown a weak chin in the past and very little KO power in his hands.  If this stays standing, Rivera will have his way.   Grove has the edge in jui jitsu but he’s not elite at it. 

Prediction – The UFC likely set this fight up as a way to re-establish Grove as a contender but their plan is very likely to backfire here.  As long as Rivera avoids the triangle choke and ground work all together, he should get the KO or TKO win.  Grove may not be strong enough to get Rivera to the ground in the first place and if there, I don’t see him doing much.  I see Grove keeping it standing for the first few minutes before he tries the takedown to get into his comfort zone, but before he has the chance he gets clocked and it’s nighty-night.  Rivera via 1st round KO. 

UFC Betting - Jorge Rivera +270

This one is the best bet of the night in my opinion.  Don’t bet the house on it but Rivera is every bit as good of a fighter here and Grove has been built up by The Ultimate Fighter to be a better fighter than he really is.  Rivera fought a guy with a similar style in Edwin Dewees not too long ago and knocked out Dewees fairly quickly.  It’s always possible Rivera could get screwed over on the cards to one of the UFC’s poster boys, but I don’t think we get to that point.  This one should be over quickly. 

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