Strikeforce
Date: September 20, 2008
Venue: Playboy Mansion
City: Beverly Hills, California, USA

Strikeforce MMA Betting at Bookmaker.com

Renato "Babalu" Sobral (+450) vs Anthony Ruiz (+330)

Renato "Babalu" Sobral (30-7) was suppose to fight Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Bobby Southworth for the title but a torn ACL and meniscus has sidelined the former TUF Season 1 star. To replace Southworth will be Anthony “A-Train” Ruiz (21-11) who at the best of times is not always in the best of shape. Ruiz is a very hard hitting light heavyweight and has good powerful striking skills but he is not very technically when he punches. Out of his 11 loses Ruiz has lost 8 mixed martial arts fights by submission. He will be fighting Renato “Babalu” Sobral a black belt in Brazilian Jujitsu with very very good grappling skills. Most online sports betting sites that have the online betting lines for this MMA fight have Babalu as a huge favorite at +450.

Sobral is an top tier fighter in the world and has fought some of the best fighters in the game like Mike Whitehead at Affliction Banned, David Heath, Chuck Liddell at UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral, Chael Sonnen, Mauricio Rua, Fedor Emelianenko, Kevin Randleman, Maurice Smith, and Dan Henderson. Who has Ruiz fought in his career? The only top level fighter Ruiz has ever encountered was a loss to Vladimir Matyushenko.

Ruiz has a punchers chance and can knock Babalu out any time of the fight but Babalu is so much better on the ground that he will be able to take Ruiz to the ground and once this hit the ground it will be over quite quickly.

Bottom Line: Babalu is a world class fighter that will expose a B level fighter for his lack of ground game. Sports betting wise a -450 bet is not worth the price to wager on since Ruiz does have a chance to win but if you are willing to shell out unfavorable lines than Babalu will win this fight. It the MMA betting lines were -280 I would lay a huge amount on thid fight but the risk versus reward is not good enough in my opinion. But for a MMA handicapping prediction Babalu will win this fight by submission because Babalu is just a better fighter and the fact that Ruiz is taking this fight on short notice he will not be in great shape. Remember that Ruiz has never been known as a cardio machine and if he can't knock out Sobral by the first round he will be too tired to do anything. Remember that Sobral most recently fought hard hitting Mike Whitehead. If he could not knock Sobral out what make you think Ruiz can. Bet on Sobral but save you money for other better bets to make.

Strikeforce MMA Betting at Bookmaker.com

Kazuo Misaki (-325) vs. Joe Riggs (+255)

Strikeforce At The Playboy Mansion II's main event will be a showdown between 2006 Pride Fighting Championship Grand Prix winner and world top 10 ranked, Kazuo “Grabaka Hitman” Misaki (20-8-2), and 25-year-old UFC star, Joe “Diesel “Riggs (28-10). 

This fight is a mismatch and this is the best mixed martial arts bet to make at Strikeforce. Misaki is one of he best middleweights in the world that has fought every top level fighter like Yoshihiro Akiyama, Denis Kang at PRIDE Bushido 13, Phil Baroni, Akira Shoji, Ed Herman, and  Jake Shields. He also has loses to Dan Henderson at PRIDE Bushido 12, Nathan Marquardt, Ricardo Almeida and Paulo Filho. He loses have come to the top of the division while Joe Riggs has fought top level guys but has never look good at any of them. He got schooled by Matt Hughes at UFC 56: Full Force and he has loses to Diego Sanchez as well.

The thing about Misaki is that his striking is so awkward that it throws off many fighters. His style of striking and kicks is something you can not prepare for. He will baffle and frustrate Riggs in the stand up. Even though Riggs is the more powerful and probably a technically better striker in this fight he has never fought a striker like Misaki. On the ground is where Rigss wants this fight but if he does take him down Misaki does have the grappling skills to beat Riggs.

This fight will have Misaki throwing kicks from all angles. He will do side kicks, push kicks, back kicks and batter Riggs’ legs. From there he will set his kicks up with strikes and he will wear down Riggs throughout the fight. Once he hurts Riggs, Misaki will take him down for a ground and pound victory.

Bottom Line: Misaki is just a better all round fighter and no matter where this fight goes he has the upper hand advantage. The MMA betting lines are very good in this fight. I would have thought the sports book oddsmakers would have opened the betting lines at -450 like the Babalu fight. At -325 I think this is a steal and I would bet a lot for a Misaki victory.

A lot of North American fans a have no idea who Misaki is, so there might be a lot of bets placed on Riggs and the betting lines might moved down in for Misaki so I would wait to see how the betting lines moves. No matter what take Misaki.

Strikeforce MMA Betting at Bookmaker.com

Josh Thomson (-1200) vs. Ashe Bowman (+660)

Do you have 1200 dollars lying around? Do you want risk that money for a 100 gain. What if it is was a sure thing? Josh “The Punk” Thomson (16-2) is such a huge online betting favorite that the online sportsbook have to set the MMA betting lines at -1200 just to get any betting action for Ashe Bowman. Strikeforce World Lightweight (155 lb. limit) Champion Josh “The Punk” Thomson will return to action in a three-round, non-title matchup with Lion’s Den prodigy Ashe Bowman (10-4). Bowman is a submission grappler that gets submitted.

Josh Thompson is one of the biggest stars in MMA right now and he has risen to the top of many lightweight top ten lists. His beat down of former pound for pound top team fighter Gilbert Melendez he made Thompson a star.

This fight will actually be closer than the betting lines suggest and it will be a very good fight on the ground but Thompson has much better stand up skills and will start to push the pace after the first round. Once Thompson gets in the groove, he will take over the striking and take Bowman to the ground. Thompson has very good takedown skills and he normally sets up his shoots so he can gain top control for a ground and pouind.

Betting wise don’t let the juicy +660 betting lines entice you to place a bet on Bowman, Josh Thompson is the read deal and he is head and tails above Bowman.

Look for Thompson to win a second round ground and pound victory.

Strikeforce MMA Betting at Bookmaker.com

Justin Wilcox (+300) vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida (-370)

Like the Misaki/Riggs fight the betting lines for the Justin Wilcox versus Mitsuhiro Ishida should be way higher so this is a great bet to lay your money on before the betting lines get any higher.

Mitsuhiro Ishida is one of the best fighters in the world in the lightweight division. He has fought and beaten some of the top fighters in the world like Gilbert Melendez, Marcus Aurelio, Kotetsu Boku, and Cristiano Marcello. His loses have come to top level guys like Caol Uno at Dream 3 - Lightweight Grand Prix 2008 Quarterfinals and top ten fighters Takanori Gomi, and Vitor Ribeiro.

Not to be mean but the Silverback Justin Wilcox (5-2) has no business being in the ring with such a talented fighter like Ishida. At -370 take these very favorable betting linesthis bet before it hits -450. Wilcox’s claim to MMA fame is that his more recent fight he fought and beat TUF castaway Gabe Ruediger by decision.

Mitsuhiro Ishida is a better grappler and is a better and stronger wrestler and is a better striker than Wilcox. They call Ishida the Endless Fighter because he is always pushing the pace and coming forward. He is relentless and has non stop cardio. At 5 foot 6 he is a short powerful wrestler that will take down Wilcox and get the ground and pound victory.

Wilcox is a good striker but he will not be able to withstand the constant pressure from Ishida who has the same fighting style of Sean Sherk. If Ishida gains top control in this fight he has the strength to hold Wilcox on the ground. Also Wilcox does not have the grappling skills on his back to submit him. Wilcox’s only chance is to out strike Ishida but he is always coming in , trying to close the distance which will cuase Wilcox problems. Once he closes in the on the distance it will nullify all of Wilcox’s striking ability.

Betting wise, bet as much as you can on Ishida before the sports book raise the betting lines.

Strikeforce MMA Betting at Bookmaker.com

Cory Devela (+170) vs. Terry Martin (-215)

If there is a dog pick to be made take Cory Devela at 9 and 1 to beat Terry Martin. However, I would not take this bet as many people are tempted to. This is a classic striker versus grappler match up and many online bettors might want to take Devela because of his many submission victories and the fact that Terry Martin (17-5) has little or no grappling skills. Martin is a very powerful 185 fighter and he went 2 hard fought rounds with BJJ black belt Vitor Belfort and he could submit him when Martin was on the ground.

I really don’t see Devela being able to take him to the ground and Martin is so strong he can out muscle out of any submissions Devela throws at him. Devela also has little or no striking and Martin has professional boxing skills and has fought most of his career at 205 so when he fights Devela he will be so much more powerful. Power is the key to this fight and Martin has so much more of it. He also has the experience as he has fought top level fighters like Vitor Belfort, Marvin Eastman at UFC 81 - Breaking Point, Jason Guida, Chael Sonnen, Jorge Rivera, Ivan Salaverry, and Chris Leben.

For Martin he is an all or nothing guy. You either get KO’ed you he gets KO’ed. Cory Devela has no striking power so this fight will be won by the more powerful and experienced fighter.

Bottom Line: Don’t let the soft betting lines fool you. Normally in a grappler versus striker fight I would lean towards the grappler but if Vitor Belfort (a Carlson Gracie Black Belt) could not submit him what makes you think Devela can.

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