UFC Handicapping and UFC Predictions

In only a few hours time UFC and MMA fans will be granted both a grudge and title fight between 2 champions who have dominated the 155 LBS division.


Coming in we have current champ 12-4-1 BJ “The Prodigy” Penn vs. former champion Sean “The Muscle Shark” Shrek 32-2-1.  Breaking down this fight I cannot help but get distracted to the hype and talk that is lurking around these fighters.  Simply put these guys hate each other.  The talk has gone back and forth for months and months.   It’s become clear that trying to obtain a situational advantage is non-existent.  Penn is the champ under controversial terms; Sherk was in his opinion wrongly stripped of his title.  Penn feels Shrek is a cheater and a coward.  Sherk wants to prove to the world that he is a champion without the steroid anchor, Penn wants to expose Sherk  and pound a message to him and all of the MMA cheater out there.  It just goes on and on.
Penn is a world class fighter; some say pound for pound the best.  With the tightest ground game in the Light Weight Class and holding a solid 2-0 LT2 beating former nemesis Jens Pulver and up and comer Joe Stevenson it could easily be a long night for Sherk.  In those prior 2 bouts Penn simply dominated using a very tactical and heavy striking approach.  Over time Penn who is known for his BJJ also punches heavy and now has learned to punch efficiently with pinpoint accuracy.


Penn vs. Pulver II ended late into the 2nd round via submission.  Penn winning by submission isn’t a stretch however looking back at the stats Penn’s striking was the platform to Pulver’s tap.  Penn landed 74% of his high% strikes compared to Pulver’s 33%.  With Pulver being peppered hard and often he was unable to shoot for a takedown where his strength is.  Pulver was held to an unbelievable 0% in submission attempts, takedowns and guard passes.  With an effective strike much like a pitcher using effective fastball to set up a changeup, Penn was able at will to decide when to shoot for a takedown.  Penn was 100% accurate in takedowns and eventually landed a submission after only 3 attempts.


Penn vs. Stevenson ended late into the 2nd round as well.  Penn again won by submission in the exact fashion.  Looking back at these stats we find a very similar attack of strikes that leads to simple takedowns.  Penn landed 58% of his high% strikes compared to Stevenson’s 41%.  Penn’s striking is so much harder that it halts his opponents who normally shoot.  Stevenson was denied submission attempts and guard passes just like Pulver. 


Sean Sherk has a tremendous wrestling background.  His core power, balance and endurance create havoc on his opponents.  Some suggest his body type is very difficult for opponents to handle as its strong and short.  Sherk comes in, steamrolls over his competition and out works them to the end or applies a vicious ground and pound.  Shrek’s game is 1 dimensional, but his 1 strength is Penn’s achilles heel.  Penn has often come in out of shape and has admitted that his fitness training is secondary.  Shrek however walks in and walks out of 5 round bouts like a walk in the park.  Look back on Sherk’s last 2 fights vs. Kenny Florian and H. Franca we see two great ground fighters that got beaten up over 5 rounds to a decision.  The main difference here is both of these fighters had no striking attack to push or frustrate a very aggressive forward attack by Sherk.  Shrek was able to mount all night and will his opponents to survival instincts.  Sherk’s takedown attempts and takedown accuracy were off the charts. 


Penn will need to impose a striking game that backs up Sherk, Shrek needs to also strike and be willing to get hit in order to catch Penn flat footed and grab takedowns.   When the ground game begins there really is a fear for Penn as Sherk will lay and pray eating the clock and stealing much needed points.  Penn however is the best off his back and can grab submissions from every angle imagined.  Sherk has never faced someone as crafty as Penn.


This fight will be won by a striking game plan; Penn comes in with an improved cardio and a striking attack that pours heavy on Sherk we have a successful title defence and the undisputed champion of the Light Weight division.


BJ PENN -250

Dean Tardio - MMA Expert Staff Writer

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