Note: fights subject to change

Dream.5 Mixed Martial Arts Grand Prix Final

Featherweight Bout:  Norifumi "KID" Yamamoto vs.  Joseph Benavidez

With a failed attempt to make the 2008 Beijing Olympics, top ten pound for pound fighter Norifumi "KID" Yamamoto has now been able to focus full time on mixed martial arts. He will be taking on Joseph Benavidez who at 7 and 0 will try to give Kid Yamamoto a run.

Joseph Benavidez is a good fighter with some good grappling skills but he will not be able to handle Yamamoto’s pressing aggressive attack. Yamamoto is a great wrestler with excellent stand up skills. He has very quick hands and is always coming forward. He will not be scared of Benavidez’s ground game since he has already beaten top grapplers like Genki Sudo, Caol Uno, Royler Gracie, Jeff Curran and BJJ World Champion Bibiano Fernandes.

Benavidez has not fought anyone near the top ten to even the top twenty and going over to Japan for the first time in front or a large crowd and under a big organization might be too much for him.

The online MMA betting lines will be huge in favor of Yamamoto and there is little chance Joseph Benavidez will be able to beat such a high level fighter. However, the betting odds will be largely in favor for Yamamoto at around -450 once the sportsbook oddmakers push the betting odds out. Betting wise if the lines are -250 or lower, lay a lot on Yamamoto otherwise lay what you can as there are other fights with better betting lines to wager on. 

I see an easy ground and pound victory for Kid Yamamoto

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Middleweight Bout:  Yoshihiro Akiyama vs.  Katsuyori Shibata

Yoshihiro Akiyama is such a great fighter yet he continues to have a cloud over him as a cheater. During his judoka days he was found to have an illegal gi which was slippery. He a was also accused of wearing slippery gear by former world and Olympic champion Kenzo Nakamura when they fought at the world championship trials in 2002. Also when Akiyama fought legendary fighter Kazushi Sakuraba he was accused of using some sort of body oil or lubricant on his body. Even though he won the fight he was disqualified and the fight was ruled a no contest.

Despite rampant rumors of Yoshihiro Akiyama’s past cheating, he is still one of the best middleweights in the world. He may not be liked by many but he has all the skills to be the next best middleweight in the world. He has already beaten Kazushi Sakuraba, Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef, Taiei Kin, Katsuhiko Nagata, and former pro boxer Francois Botha.

Akiyama has great judo skills and a very good ground game but one of his most underestimated skills is his stand up striking skills. He will be fighting Katsuyori Shibata who despite a 2 and 4 record has fought top level opponents like Jason Miller at Dream 3 - Lightweight Grand Prix 2008 Quarterfinals, Kazushi Sakuraba, and Ralek Gracie.

Katsuyori Shibata is a game fighter but he needs to grow and learn as a fighter instead of being thrown into the wolves with the likes of top level fighter like Mayhem Miller, The Gracie Hunter and Ralek Gracie.

Once again he will be thrown into the fire where he will face a top level fighter in Akiyama. He will give Akiyama a run for his money but Akiyama is a top level fighter with great all round skills.

The Dream.5 online betting odds will be largely in favor of Akiyama. If the betting lines are not too great I would lay a lot on this fight. Shibata does not have the grappling, wrestling, or striking skills to compete on the same level with Akiyama.

Look for Akiyama to win this fight by TKO.

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Welterweight Bout:  Motoki Miyazawa vs.  Kuniyoshi Hironaka

After 3 of 4 loses in the UFC to Jonathan Goulet at UFC 83 - Serra vs. St. Pierre II, Thiago Alves at UFC - Fight Night 11 and Jon Fitch at UFC 64 - Unstoppable Kuniyoshi Hironaka returns back to Japan to face Motoki Miyazawa who is undefeated fighter at 4 and 0. Despite a poor record in North America Hironaka has fought top level fighters, like going the distance with Jon Fitch and losing to Shinya Aoki. However he has notable wins over great BJJ fighter Renato Verissimo with a TKO, a submission victory over Ryan Schultz and a spit decision victory over Nick Diaz.

With Kuniyoshi Hironaka fighting out of Japan has led him to fight difference styles and bigger North America fighters. This experience will give him a distinct advantage over Miyazawa who has only fought Japanese fighters. Miyazawa is a well rounded fighter but has not fought near as good opponents as Hironaka has.

The wagering lines might be pretty close since Miyazawa is undefeated but Hironaka will use his experience and strength to push around Miyazawa the entire fight before he either submits him or taps him out.

Wager a lot on Hironaka for a convincing victory.

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Lightweight Grand Prix Bout:  Shinya Aoki (-325) vs.  Caol Uno (+265)

In Japan this mixed martial arts fight will be like the Super Bowl as two of it’s greatest fighters will face off against each other for the first time.

Caol Uno has done more than most people thought going this far into the lightweight grand prix. Many people thought Uno might be over the hill and past his prime. However, he has fought and beaten top level fighters like Mitsuhiro Ishida, Ivan Menjivar, Kultar Gill, Rich Clementi, Hideo Tokoro, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Din Thomas, Yves Edwards, Fabiano Iha, Rumina Sato, and Dennis Hallman. He has loses to Jen Pulver, BJ Penn, Hayato Sakurai, Norifumi Yamamoto, Joachim Hansen, JZ Gesias Cavalcante and Andre Amade.

But out of all those fighters he has never fought anyone like Shinya Aoki. His fighting style is so different that Uno will have a hard time trying to defend. Everyone knows that Aoki is going to pull guard and apply submission attempt after submission attempt. Uno is a great fighter but Aoki has withstood heavy handed hitters like JZ Gesias Cavalcante and Joachim Hansen whom have beaten Uno.

Shinya Aoki is one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world and I don’t see Uno knocking him out or submitting him. Aoki has too many weapons and once he gets Uno in his rubber guard he will transition from arm bar to triangle to omaplata. Aoki throws so many submission attempts that Uno will eventually be caught in one.

This will be a great fight but the majority of the fight will be Uno trying to get away from Aoki and the other half will have Uno trying to get out of submissions. At -325 at Bookmaker.com the online betting odds for this fight are pretty high, but well worth the price since Aoki is one of the best fighters in the world and Uno does not have the tools to either submit him to KO him.

Betting wise Aoki is a very good bet to play your money on since he will win the lightweight grand prix. If you have a chance to place a MMA prop bet on Dream place it on Aoki to win the whole thing outright.

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Lightweight Grand Prix Bout:  Eddie Alvarez (+110) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (-140)

The other semi final grand prix has hard hitting Eddie Alvarez fighting the Crusher Tatsuya Kawajiri who is a very strong wrestler. Eddie Alvarez has been an underdog throughout the grand prix and he will again come into this fight as a +110 underdog at Bookmaker.com.

Tatsuya Kawajiri has fought every top level fighter in the lightweight division. He has fought and beaten Luiz Firmino at Dream 3 - Lightweight Grand Prix 2008 Quarterfinals, Kultar Gill at Dream 1 - Lightweight Grand Prix 2008 Opening Round, Luiz Azeredo, Chris Brennan, Charles Bennett, Joachim Hansen, and Vitor Ribeiro. However he has 4 loses in his MMA career to Gilbert Melendez, and Takanori Gomi.

I can see an upset in this fight but I still think Kawajiri will pull off the victory with his experience. He may not be a heavy striker but he has great wrestling skills and his smaller compact body will throw off Alvarez. Once the fight goes to the ground Kawajiri has such a good base and strength to hold Alvarez on the ground where he can do a very effective ground and pound.

Alvarez has never fought a fighter like Kawajiri. Alvarez is vastly becoming one of the best fighters in the world but he has never fought a great wrestler like Kawajiri. Yes Alvarez can strike with 10 KO’s to his credit but the better competition he fights the less likely he will KO the fighter. Alvarez will want to keep his distance in this fight so he will try to remain outside. If he closes in he will be vulnerable to be taken down. If this fights goes to the ground it will be over as Kawajiri will use his dominate wrestling skills to ground and pound him out or submit him.

Has Alvarez improved enough to be a well rounded fighter? In two years, yes but not today. At -140 you are getting decent betting odds as Kawajiri is a top ten lightweight fighter and Alvarez is not at that level yet.

Alvarez has a great punchers chance but will be confused by the shorter more powerful and experienced fighter.Look for Kawajiri to win a hard fought ground and pound victory with a Unanimous decision.

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Lightweight Grand Prix Reserve Bout:  Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar Gill

The reserve bout for who will replace the semi finalist should one can not continue should be a candidate for fight of the night. Joachim “Hellboy” Hansen will face off with Kultar “Black Mamba” Gill.

Both of these fighters love to pull on a show for the crowd and love to strike. Gill is a better pure striker but Hansen is a very well rounded fighter than loves to go to the ground as much as he loves to strike.

If this fight stays standing the entire fight, Gill will eventually take over and win but this is MMA and Hansen will use his strikes to set up a takedown and that is where Gill is very vulnerable. Gill does not train that much in grappling as he should and that will be his downfall.

In MMA Hansen has fought everybody in the light weight division. Win or lose he is always in the fight and has pushed the best fighter to their limits. He has fought and beaten Rumina Sato, Takanori Gomi, Gesias Calvancanti, Caol Uno, Masakazu Imanari, Yves Edwards at PRIDE - Bushido 9, and Luiz Azeredo at PRIDE - Bushido 10.

He has also very hard fought loses to Shinya Aoki at PRIDE - Shockwave 2006, Vitor Ribeiro, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and Hayato Sakurai at PRIDE - Bushido 9. The problem with Gill is that he likes to push the pace in a fight but he will be fighting a fighter that is equally as aggressive as he is. If this fight goes to the ground Gill does not have the ability to scramble and defend submissions as 6 out of his 7 loses have come by submission.

Has Gill worked enough on his defense? Yes he has but not to the level of Hell Boy’s skill on the ground. Hansen will pose too much pressure on the ground in this fight and I see the Black Mamba getting caught in an arm bar when his is on top throwing wild punches.

Online betting lines for this Dream.5 fight will have Hansen as a large favorite and I would wager a lot on a submission victory.

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Lightweight Championship bout: Shinya Aoki/Caol Uno vs. Eddie Alvarez/Tatsuya Kawajiri

Shinya Aoki vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

Tatsuya Kawajiri will be spent after his fight with Eddie Alvarez. Aoki on the other hand will have conserved his energy because his fight with Uno was mostly fought in his rubber guard.

Like Uno, Kawajiri will have no answer for Aoki’s rubber guard. Kawajiri will be the bigger stronger fighter but again Aoki has fought top level wrestlers in the past and he will be able to throw off any attack Kawajiri throws at him.

Aoki is such an awkward fighter that his style poses so many problems for any fighter he faces. You can not train for his style and he will frustrate Kawajiri who is all about being in a dominate position.

Look for Aoki to step away from Kawajiri’s shoot attempts and once Aoki pulls guard from the standing position or pulls guard to the round he will be caught in his rubber guard. Eventually his will be caught in one of Aoki’s submission attempts.

Look for Aoki to become the first Dream Lightweight champion.  

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